With UFC 267 just gone by, UFC 268 is already upon us! Although it has lost some great potential with the Luke Rockhold pull-out, it’s still an exciting night of fights! Kamaru Usman will face his biggest rival, Colby ‘Chaos’ Covington for the second time, to solidify his championship reign. …
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Vincente “The Silent Assassin” Luque and Belal “Remember the Name” Muhammad square off this weekend, to determine who’s next in line to challenge the UFC welterweight title. UFC Fight Night: Luque vs Muhammad 2 is an exciting event with many great fights. Arguably, this fight night is better than last week’s PPV (UFC 273), on paper at least. I would have liked to have predicted the whole event, but I don’t have the time! At the very least I will predict the main event, which is a clash between one of the UFC’s most entertaining fighters, and one of their least.
“The Silent Assassin” is an apt name for the darkest horse in the UFC’s welterweight division. Vincente Luque has been on a slow rise since 2015, going 14-2 in that time. Those 2 defeats coming to prime Leon Edwards and Wonderboy Thomson. With some of the crispest boxing you’ll ever see, superb grappling, with a ridiculous granite jaw, Luque is as well rounded as they come. A stunning 90% finishing rate in 21 victories, Luque capitalises on every mistake his opponents make.
How does Belal Muhammad compare?
On the opposite end of the spectrum is Belal Muhammad. “Remember the Name” is as ironic as they come, since you’d struggle to build a highlight reel for this fighter, who has gone to the scorecards in 15 of his 20 victories. Muhammad already has a prior loss to Luque, his only loss by finish in fact. This skews the betting lines, but it happened way back in 2016. Luque countered Belal with a mean left hook (a punch which has cemented itself as a staple of Luque’s toolset).
Luque knocked Belal out cold with a left hook, as Belal commits to a lazy leg kick.
Since this vicious defeat, Belal has been on an absolute tear, going 10-1-0(1NC), with that 1 loss being to Geoff Neal, and that NC to Leon Edwards via. eye-poke just last year. 9/10 of these victories have come by decision. Belal is the wet blanket fighter of the UFC’s welterweight division, he smothers his opponents with dominant top control for the full 15 minutes. This is smart fighting from Belal, he comes with a game plan and executes it near flawlessly every time.
Belal’s last victory came over a faded Wonderboy. Belal showed dominant top control, and very nearly ended the fight via. TKO. Does this improved Belal pose a threat for the ever dangerous Vincente Luque?
Without a doubt Luque is miles ahead in the striking department. It’s unwise to stand with Luque as he has superb boxing, and he can also mix it up with flashier techniques like flying knees. Muhammad uses a lot of his striking to set up takedowns, so he doesn’t have a lot to offer here.
“Platinum” Mike Perry’s nose as a result of one of Vincente Luque’s flying knees
Muhammad cannot get lazy when in range of Luque as his countering ability is unparalleled. His combos are often followed by a short, sharp left hook that has floored several past opponents. If you lower guard for a moment you’re risking a knee to the face or a hook to the jaw.
This isn’t to say Luque won’t get hit, because he gets hit a lot in all of his fights. Woodley smashes Luque several times, as did Mike Perry, and Wonderboy. What stopped these men in their tracks was Luque’s insane durability, the man can’t be knocked out. If massive power punches like Woodley and Perry can’t dent Luque, then neither will Belal.
It’s going to be a difficult night for Luque if Muhammad brings his A-Game. Belal looked huge against Wonderboy, and totally dominated the superior striker who had a fantastic record of takedown defence. What Luque offers than Wonderboy couldn’t, is underrated grappling and deadly offensive submissions.
Forget Tony Ferguson, the real Darce Knight is Vincente Luque
Luque locks the Brabo choke on Tyron Woodley
I say Darce, but Luque has 6 finishes by either Brabo or Anaconda choke. His grappling is no joke with almost half of his finishes coming by submission. Two submissions that Luque has an affinity for are the Brabo choke and the Anaconda choke. These are set up from the headlock position, and are especially deadly when an opponent hits the takedown. Vincente likes to sprawl on takedowns, or lock heads with an opponent against the cage, before locking up their neck in a choke. He then drags his opponent to the ground before flipping them onto their rear and applying pressure to the neck. This is how Luque finished his last two fights, against Tyron Woodley, and esteemed grappler Michael Chiesa.
It’s often the superior grappler who wins in MMA. The superior grappler in this case has to be Muhammad, who has the better smothering wrestling. However, Muhammad lacks the submission threat to pose any danger on the ground, and actually risks being submitted himself when entering on his takedowns.
The fight should play out like this: Muhammad is thoroughly outmatched on the feet, he can’t stand and bang with Luque for fear of being knocked out. Because of this, his takedowns are his route to victory. If Muhammad can put on a similar performance to what he did to Wonderboy, we should see a tiresome but dominant UD. However, I don’t think this will be the case, as Luque not only has good TDD, but also a fantastic arsenal of submissions.
If Luque can deny Muhammad the takedowns, and ruin the game plan of smothering top control from Muhammad, then I anticipate a Luque finish.
My pick – Vincente Luque by finish
I choose Vincente Luque by finish. Luque averages 4/7 odds to win out right, playing as a slight favourite. Luque by KO/TKO, or DQ comes in at 28/11 odds, and by submission 7/2. Picking Luque to win out right would be the smartest choice. With his finishing rate and the fact he’s already knocked out Muhammad once means a victory by KO/TKO/DQ at 28/11 odds should be very tempting. A submission definitely isn’t out of the question if you’re feeling riskier.
If you’re feeling Belal Muhammad, the odds of a decision win are 11/4, which are very good odds for a fighter with his record.
Per Oddschecker
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With UFC 267 just gone by, UFC 268 is already upon us! Although it has lost some great potential with the Luke Rockhold pull-out, it’s still an exciting night of fights! Kamaru Usman will face his biggest rival, Colby ‘Chaos’ Covington for the second time, to solidify his championship reign. …
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It’s fight week, and the UFC 284 main event has us all prophesizing on who will be the true UFC pound-for-pound king. Will it be Khabib protégé Islam Makhachev, or the seemingly invincible Aussie, Alexander Volkanovski?
Let’s take a deep dive into the strengths and weaknesses of each fighter, and see if we can draw an early conclusion on this all-time-great matchup.
An incredible Dagestani phenom. Islam is going to be 5 inches taller, and will hold a MASSIVE weight and strength advantage come fight night.
Islam has great left side kicks from the southpaw stance, he mixes it up well, hiding his telegraphs and keeping his opponent’s guessing whether it’s going to hit the leg, body, or head. He’s also been developing his boxing, and has crisp, purist punches, and some fantastic counter hooks (like that which dropped Oliveira).
Islam dropping Oliveira with a crisp counter right hook
His greatest strengths lie in his grappling. Islam utilises wonderful trips, and has a sky-high IQ within the clinch, being able to capitalise on the smallest mistakes and turning disadvantageous positions into great opportunities.
Ground fighting is Makhachev’s bread and butter, his offensive submissions and smothering wrestling are second to none. He’s fond of isolating limbs and putting his whole body behind his submissions. His most consistent technique is the arm triangle, which he often executes from mount.
Islam submitting Drew Dober with a mounted arm triangle
Whilst his striking isn’t top-tier, it’s well supported by his world class MMA grappling, which allows him to throw techniques with less caution. This is a double-edged sword (see Adriano Martins fight). However, since that loss, he’s cleaned up his striking a lot and rarely leaves any openings.
Volkanovski battles against almost every disadvantage in this fight, from height, to weight, to age, to many other factors.
Volk’s timing and agility are unparalleled, his three outings with Max were a perfect display of game-planning and execution. It’s safe to say that if Volk finds holes in his game, he drills them relentlessly in camp.
Volkanovski draws Max in before hitting him with a cheeky inside leg kick
Volk is one of the best leg kickers currently in the UFC, he mixes them up well by targeting both the outside and inside of the leg. He uses these kicks to open combinations, and draw his opponents in for quick reactive counters, which is something Volk does better than anyone else.
He has shown tremendous submission defense (Ortega), and the ability to overcome and subdue strong wrestlers (Mendes). He also has 25+ minute high-pace cardio (Max x3), and insane reactive combinations (Max again).
Volkanovski escapes a TIGHT triangle, before sliding out of Ortega’s back-take
Being the smaller and more agile man, Volk will be able to move his hips for good TDD, and he’ll be harder to keep down. His shot selection is great, but he’ll need to watch out for his low leg kicks being caught, which happened against Ortega when he got caught in that guillotine. Somebody like Islam won’t let that mistake slide.
There’s a lot of speculation on what this fight is going to look like if it hits the floor. However, it’s less of an ‘if’, more like a ‘when’ the fight hits the floor, because it’s inevitable with a fighter like Islam.
Volkanovski is bulking to make lightweight (155lbs), but Makhachev cuts to lightweight, and will likely be 170lbs+ inside the cage. The size disparity will be comical, and with it we’ll see a strength difference, which lies with Islam and his grappling.
Volkanovski has shown vulnerability to caught kicks and having his back taken by various fighters. In some of these instances, he’s been locked up in submissions that would have slept lesser men. This is the sort of mistake he can’t be making against the likes of Makhachev.
It’s one of those types of fights where one guy needs to be perfect for 25 minutes (Volk), whereas the other only needs to be perfect for 1 (Islam). Although Volk has shown the ability to be perfect for 5 rounds, I think the size, strength, and grappling disadvantages don’t do him any favours.
Volkanovski may also have troubles with Islam’s strong left kicks, as the shorter man, he’ll have to instigate his own striking exchanges, otherwise he’ll be at the mercy of Islam’s ranged attacks.
As a consummate martial artist who’s always improving, it’s a shame to pick against Volkanovski. In this instance, I’ll be picking Islam Makhachev to pull off a finish in the first 3 rounds.
What do you think? Agree or disagree? Or do you have a whole other take that nobody has considered? Drop a comment below!
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Dan Hooker dips to 145lbs to take on rising British contender Arnold Allen, in one of the most intriguing fights of the night. This is the toughest test for Allen to date. Many factors are at play in this fight: where is Allen’s ceiling? Is Dan better or worse at …
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Few sports can rival the peculiarities of MMA. It encompasses an array of wild personalities that originate from both upper management and the grassroots level. But what sets MMA apart more than anything else is the abundance of ‘curses’ that afflict fighters and become ingrained in the collective consciousness of devoted fans.
A UFC curse refers to a scenario in which a fighter becomes entangled in certain circumstances or commits an action before a fight, regardless of how trivial, that seems to guarantee their defeat in the match.
(As of Dec 11, 2023)
If a fighter competes below middleweight, and is 35 or older, they have a miniscule chance of winning title fights. The collective championship record for fighters who match this criteria is 2-22, Tyron Woodley owns those two wins.
Fighters below welterweight have a 0% win rate in title fights if they are 35 or older.
Here’s looking at you Colby Covington (35) and Alexander Volkanovski (35)
If a fighter has their haircut as a part of the ‘UFC Embedded’ vlog series prior to their fight, they seem to have a higher chance of losing.
Whenever MMA pundit Chael Sonnen picks a fighter to win, they often end up losing.
Whenever Drake puts a huge bet on a fighter, they tend to lose.
Some fighters refuse to fist bump Bruce Buffer when he’s giving their introduction because it’s bad luck.
Fighters that walk out to an Eminem song have a 45% win rate.
Fighters who are on the cover art for the EA UFC games tend to lose their next fight. Example: Conor & Ronda on the cover of UFC 2.
Fighter’s that used to go on the Conan O’Brien show seemed to lose their next fight. I.e. Conor before Nate Diaz.
Ferguson vs. Khabib was cancelled FIVE times. Both fighters sustained injuries, and COVID cancelled the last bout before Ferguson got TKO’d by Justin Gaethje.
Anderson Silva snapped his leg against Chris Weidman. Silva retired on a loss to Uriah Hall. Weidman snapped his leg on Hall.
Fighters who undergo cupping therapy and enter the octagon with cup marks always seem to lose.
Know any more curses? Drop a comment below and they could be added to the list.
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Straight to the point, here’s some techniques I think are vastly underused and wish we saw more of in MMA. Shoulder Cranking Shoulder cranking is initiated in the clinch, when a fighter’s opponent has an underhook (their arm is under their opponent’s armpit), they can wrap the forearm under the …
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After the dismal night of decisions I witnessed the other week on the Miesha Tate vs Ketlen Viera card, It’s great to see a card full of guaranteed bangers like the one this Saturday where Rob Font and José Aldo finally square off. There’s numerous matchups to be excited for, …
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